Effects of migration rates and vaccination on the spread of yellow fever in Latin American communities / Efectos de las tasas de migración y de la vacunación en la propagación de la fiebre amarilla en comunidades de América Latina / Efeitos das taxas de migração e vacinação na propagação da febre amarela em comunidades latino-americanas

ABSTRACT Objective. To assess how relevant the flow of people between communities is, compared to vaccination and type of vector, on the spread and potential outbreaks of yellow fever in a disease-free host community. Methods. Using a SEIRV-SEI model for humans and vectors, we applied numerical simulations to the scenarios: (1) migration from an endemic community to a disease-free host community, comparing the performance of Haemagogus janthinomys and Aedes aegypti as vectors; (2) migration through a transit community located on a migratory route, where the disease is endemic, to a disease-free one; and (3) effects of different vaccination rates in the host community, considering the vaccination of migrants upon arrival. Results. Results show no remarkable differences between scenarios 1 and 2. The type of vector and vaccination coverage in the host community are more relevant for the occurrence of outbreaks than migration rates, with H. janthinomys being more effective than A. aegypti. Conclusions. With vaccination being more determinant for a potential outbreak than migration rates, vaccinating migrants on arrival may be one of the most effective measures against yellow fever. Furthermore, H. janthinomys is a more competent vector than A. aegypti at similar densities, but the presence of A. aegypti is a warning to maintain vaccination above recommended levels.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Evaluar la importancia del flujo de personas entre comunidades, en comparación con la vacunación y el tipo de vector, para la propagación y los posibles brotes de fiebre amarilla en una comunidad de acogida libre de la enfermedad. Métodos. Con el empleo de un modelo SEIRV—SEI para personas y vectores, aplicamos simulaciones numéricas a las siguientes situaciones hipotéticas: 1) migración desde una comunidad con endemicidad a una comunidad de acogida libre de la enfermedad, en la que se compararon los resultados producidos por Haemagogus janthinomys y Aedes aegypti como vectores; 2) migración a través de una comunidad de tránsito situada en una ruta migratoria, donde la enfermedad es endémica, hacia otra comunidad libre de la enfermedad; y 3) efectos de tasas de vacunación diferentes en la comunidad de acogida, tomando en consideración la vacunación de las personas migrantes a su llegada. Resultados. Los resultados no muestran diferencias notables entre las situaciones 1 y 2. En cuanto a la aparición de brotes, tanto la cobertura vacunal en la comunidad de acogida como el tipo de vector tienen más importancia que las tasas de migración; y H. janthinomys muestra mayor eficacia que A. aegypti. Conclusiones. Dado que, para determinar la aparición de un posible brote, la vacunación tiene mayor importancia que las tasas de migración, la vacunación de las personas migrantes a su llegada puede ser una de las medidas más eficaces contra la fiebre amarilla. Además, a densidades similares, H. janthinomys es un vector más competente que A. aegypti, por lo que la presencia de A. aegypti constituye una señal de alerta para mantener la vacunación por encima de los niveles recomendados.

RESUMO Objetivo. Avaliar a relevância do fluxo de pessoas entre comunidades em comparação com a vacinação e tipo de vetor para a propagação e potenciais surtos de febre amarela em uma comunidade de destino livre da doença. Métodos. Usando um modelo SEIRV-SEI para humanos e vetores, foram aplicadas simulações numéricas aos seguintes cenários: (1) migração de uma comunidade endêmica para uma comunidade de destino livre da doença, comparando o desempenho de Haemagogus janthinomys e de Aedes aegypti como vetores; (2) migração através de uma comunidade de trânsito localizada em uma rota migratória, onde a doença é endêmica, para uma comunidade de destino livre da doença; e (3) efeitos de diferentes taxas de vacinação na comunidade de destino, considerando-se a vacinação dos migrantes ao chegarem. Resultados. Os resultados não revelaram diferenças marcantes entre os cenários 1 e 2. O tipo de vetor e a cobertura vacinal na comunidade de destino são mais relevantes para a ocorrência de surtos do que as taxas de migração; o vetor H. janthinomys é mais efetivo do que A. aegypti. Conclusões. Na medida em que a vacinação é mais determinante para um potencial surto que as taxas de migração, a vacinação de migrantes na chegada pode ser uma das medidas mais efetivas contra a febre amarela. Além disso, o H. janthinomys é um vetor mais competente do que o A. aegypti em densidades similares, mas a presença de A. aegypti é um alerta para manter a vacinação acima dos níveis recomendados.

The optimum level of meld to minimize the mortality on liver transplantation waiting list, and liver transplanted patient in são paulo state, brazil / Melhor nível do meld para minimizar a mortalidade em lista de transplante de fígado no estado de são paulo, brasil

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: After validation in multiple types of liver disease patients, the MELD score was adopted as a standard by which liver transplant candidates with end-stage liver disease were prioritized for organ allocation in the United States since 2002, and in Brazil, since 2006. AIMS: To analyze the mortality profile of patients on the liver transplant waiting list correlated to MELD score at the moment of transplantation. METHODS: This study used the data from the Secretary of Health of the São Paulo State, Brazil, which listed 22,522 patients, from 2006 (when MELD score was introduced in Brazil) until June 2009. Patients with acute hepatic failure and tumors were included as well. We also considered the mortality of both non-transplanted and transplanted patients as a function of the MELD score at presentation. RESULTS: Our model showed that the best MELD score for patients on the liver transplant waiting list associated to better results after liver transplantation was 26. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the best score for applying to liver transplant waiting list in the State of São Paulo was 26. This is the score that minimizes the mortality in both non-transplanted and liver transplanted patients.

RESUMO RACIONAL: Desde 2002, após validação em múltiplos tipos de hepatopatias, o escore MELD foi adotado como padrão pelo qual os candidatos a transplante de fígado com doença hepática terminal têm sido priorizados para alocação de órgãos nos Estados Unidos, e em 2006 no Brasil. OBJETIVOS: Analisar a mortalidade de pacientes em lista de espera para transplante de fígado correlacionando com o MELD, no momento do transplante. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados os dados da Secretaria de Saúde do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, onde foram listados 22.522 pacientes, desde 2006 (quando o escore MELD foi introduzido no Brasil) até junho de 2009. Foram incluídos pacientes com falência hepática e tumores. A mortalidade de pacientes não transplantados e transplantados também foi considerada em função do escore MELD. RESULTADOS: Nosso modelo mostrou que o melhor valor do MELD, em pacientes em lista de espera para transplante e com melhores resultados, foi de 26. Este valor minimiza mortalidade em pacientes não transplantados bem comem pacientes na lista de espera para transplante de fígado. CONCLUSÕES: O escore MELD ótimo para entrar na lista de espera para transplante de fígado, no estado de São Paulo, é em torno de 26. Esse é o valor que minimiza a mortalidade tanto dos pacientes não transplantados em lista de espera, quanto dos submetidos à transplante de fígado.

Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic

OBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contact-tracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing.

Cardiorespiratory performance of coronary artery disease patients on land versus underwater treadmill tests: a comparative study

OBJECTIVE: To compare responses to a cardiopulmonary exercise test on land versus on an underwater treadmill, to assess the cardiorespiratory performance of coronary artery disease patients while immersed in warm water and to compare with the performance of healthy individuals. METHODS: The sample population consisted of 40 subjects, which included 20 coronary artery disease patients aged 63.7±8.89 years old, functional class I and II, according to the New York Hearth Association, and 20 healthy subjects aged 64.7±7.09 years old. The statistical significances were calculated through an ANOVA test with a (1 - β) power of 0.861. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00989248 (22). RESULTS: Significant differences were uncovered in coronary artery disease group regarding the variables heart beats (HB), (p>0.01), oxygen consumption (VO2), (p>0.01) and carbon dioxide production (VCO2) (p<0.01). Also, for the same group, in relation to the environment, water versus on land for HB, VO2, VCO2 and oxygen for each heart beat (VO2/HB) all of than (p<0.01). The stages for data collected featured the subject's performance throughout the experiment, and within the given context, variables rating of perceived exertion (RPE), HB, VO2, VCO2 and VO2/HB (p<0.01) showed significant interactions between test stages and environment. Additionally, there was a significant interaction between the etiology and the test stages for the variables HB, VO2 and VCO2 (p<0.01). Electrocardiographic changes compatible with myocardial ischemia or arrhythmia were not observed. The subjects exhibited lower scores on Borg's perceived exertion scale in the water than at every one of the test stages on land (p<0.01). CONCLUSION: This study show that a cardiopulmonary exercise test can be safely conducted in subjects in immersion and that the procedures, resources and equipment used yielded replicable and reliable data. Significant differences observed in water versus on land allow us to conclude that coronary artery disease patients are able to do physical exercise in water and that the physiological effects of immersion do not present any risk for such patients, as exercise was well tolerated by all subjects.

Age and regional differences in clinical presentation and risk of hospitalization for dengue in Brazil, 2000-2014

OBJECTIVES: Dengue cases range from asymptomatic to severe, eventually leading to hospitalization and death. Timely and appropriate management is critical to reduce morbidity. Since 1980, dengue has spread throughout Brazil, affecting an increasing number of individuals. This paper describes age and regional differences in dengue’s clinical presentation and associated risk of hospitalization based on more than 5 million cases reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health from 2000-2014. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of ∼5,450,000 dengue cases, relating clinical manifestations and the risk of hospitalization to age, gender, previous infection by dengue, dengue virus serotype, years of formal education, delay to first attendance and the occurrence of dengue during outbreaks and in different Brazilian regions. RESULTS: Complicated forms of dengue occurred more frequently among those younger than 10 years (3.12% vs 1.92%) and those with dengue virus 2 infection (7.65% vs 2.42%), with a delay to first attendance >2 days (3.18% vs 0.82%) and with ≤4 years of formal education (2.02% vs 1.46%). The risk of hospitalization was higher among those aged 6-10 years old (OR 4.57; 95% CI 1.43-29.96) and those who were infected by dengue virus 2 (OR 6.36; 95% CI 2.52-16.06), who lived in the Northeast region (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.11-2.10) and who delayed first attendance by >5 days (composite OR 3.15; 95% CI 1.33-8.9). CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil, the occurrence of severe dengue and related hospitalization is associated with being younger than 10 years old, being infected by dengue virus 2 or 3, living in the Northeast region (the poorest and the second most populated) and delaying first attendance for more than 2 days.

A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.

Designing a vaccination strategy against dengue / Modelos para implementar a vacinação contra dengue

In this work we propose a mathematical approach to estimate the dengue force of infection, the average age of dengue first infection, the optimum age to vaccinate children against dengue in a routine fashion and the optimum age interval to introduce the dengue vaccine in a mass vaccination campaign. The model is based on previously published models for vaccination against other childhood infections, which resulted in actual vaccination programmes in Brazil. The model was applied for three areas of distinct levels of endemicity of the city of Recife in Northeastern State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Our results point to an optimal age to introduce the dengue vaccine in the routine immunization programme at two years of age and an age interval to introduce a mass vaccination between three and 14 years of age.

Neste trabalho propomos um modelo matemático para a estimativa da força de infecção, da idade média de primo-infecção, da idade ótima para vacinação de rotina e do intervalo ótimo de cobertura vacina em uma campanha para a introdução da vacina contra a dengue. O modelo baseia-se em publicações anteriores de desenhos de estratégias de vacinação contra outras infecções e que resultaram em estratégias de vacinação no Brasil. O modelo foi aplicado em três áreas com níveis endêmicos de dengue distintos na cidade de Recife, Pernambuco. Nossos resultados apontam para uma idade ótima de vacinação na rotina de dois anos de idade e para um intervalo de vacinação em campanha entre três e 14 anos.

Vectorial capacity, basic reproduction number, force of infection and all that: formal notation to complete and adjust their classical concepts and equations

A dimensional analysis of the classical equations related to the dynamics of vector-borne infections is presented. It is provided a formal notation to complete the expressions for the Ross' Threshold Theorem, the Macdonald's basic reproduction "rate" and sporozoite "rate", Garret-Jones' vectorial capacity and Dietz-Molineaux-Thomas' force of infection. The analysis was intended to provide a formal notation that complete the classical equations proposed by these authors.

The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

Como tornar os termos de consentimento mais fáceis de ler? / How to make consent forms easier to read?

OBJETIVO: Reconhecer o nível de alfabetismo funcional de usuários do ambulatório do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (HCMFUSP) com a finalidade de identificar recomendações para adequar a redação do TCLE ao nível de alfabetismo dos usuários, pois estes podem vir a ser sujeitos de pesquisa. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal quantitativo com 399 sujeitos. A amostra foi intencional, selecionada entre usuários dos ambulatórios do HCFMUSP. A coleta de dados utilizou instrumento que continha um texto em prosa compatível para a avaliação das habilidades de leitura necessárias para a compreensão de um TCLE. RESULTADOS: Mais de 46,6 por cento dos entrevistados foram classificados como analfabetos funcionais. Desses, 12,7 por cento sequer foram capazes de entender a tarefa proposta no texto lido. Apesar disto, quase 50 por cento dos entrevistados declararam ter ao menos iniciado o ensino médio. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados e as orientações para a redação de texto centrada no leitor permitiu que elaborássemos recomendações para tornar os termos de consentimento mais fáceis de ler. Recomendamos que o pesquisador elabore o TCLE como um texto em estrutura narrativa, dirigido ao leitor, usando palavras e termos familiares, ou seja, termos comuns à linguagem dos sujeitos e à linguagem médica. Além de contribuir para melhorar a relação entre o sujeito e o pesquisador, acredita-se que estas recomendações possam contribuir para a diminuição do tempo de tramitação de projetos de pesquisa. Já que os problemas na redação do TCLE motivam boa parte das pendências que retardam este andamento.

OBJECTIVE: Define the literacy level of Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (HCMFUSP) outpatients, for the purpose of identifying recommendations to adapt writing of the informed consent form to the outpatients literacy level, since these can become the subject of research. METHODS: Quantitative cross sectional study with 399 subjects. The sample was intentional, selected from different outpatient care units of HCFMUSP. Data collection used an instrument that contained a text with prose compatible for assessment of reading skills needed for comprehension of the consent form. Results. More than 46.6 percent of the interviewees were classified as functionally illiterate, of these, 12.7 percent were even unable to understand the proposed task in the text they read . Nevertheless , nearly 50 percent of the interviewees reported having at least started high school . CONCLUSION: The results and the orientations for the text writing centered on the reader allowed us to make recommendations to render the consent form easier to read . We recommend that the researcher modifies the text to a structural narrative, addressed to the reader, using terms that are familiar., In other words, with terms common to the subjects' and to the medical language. In addition to improving the relationship between the subject and researcher, it is believed that these recommendations may reduce the time taken for the proceeding of research projects, since problems in the wording of consent forms contribute significantly to project delays.

Sexual harassment in the physician-patient interaction: analysis of charges against doctors in the state of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: This research intends to discuss sexual harassment within the doctor-patient relationship based on four parameters: doctor's characteristics, accuser's characteristics, accusation characteristics, and the evaluation by the Medicine Council of São Paulo. METHOD: It is a descriptive, quantitative approach using a retrospective documental analysis. Studied subjects were doctors who were allegedly engaged in sexual harassment. This analysis considered all accusations made from January 2000 to December 2005 (n=150). RESULTS: For this type of sexual abuse, there was a prevalence of male professionals (96.6 percent) who committed abuse against female patients (90.3 percent) during adulthood (77.7 percent). The mean age of the accused was 46.87 years, ranging from 30-76 years, concentrated between 46-75 years. The intrinsic difficulty of understanding sexual harassment by a professional constrained ethical evaluation of the cases, with 24.1 percent of the cases being considered proceeding charges by the professional council. When the cases were recognized as proceeding, they were either filed (88.2 percent) or were considered to be ethical infringement (11.8 percent) becoming Professional Ethical Process (PEP). In the majority of proceeding cases (87 percent), there was a Police Occurrence Report enclosed. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The incidence of sexual abuse by professionals was independent of education, as the accused professionals came from a large variety of medical colleges, without significant differences related to institution. The predominance of accusations against older professionals may occur due to the frail personality structure that allows professional acting out. Objective evidence is very important in ethical evaluations compared to psychological and subjective evidence.

Relationship among epidemiological parameters of six childhood infections in a non-immunized Brazilian community

Epidemiological parameters, such as age-dependent force of infection and average age at infection () were estimated for rubella, varicella, rotavirus A, respiratory syncytial virus, hepatitis A and parvovirus B19 infections for a non-immunized Brazilian community, using the same sera samples. The for the aforementioned diseases were 8.45 years (yr) [95 percent CI: (7.23, 9.48) yr], 3.90 yr [95 percent CI: (3.51, 4.28) yr], 1.03 yr [95 percent CI: (0.96, 1.09) yr], 1.58 yr [95 percent CI: (1.39, 1.79) yr], 7.17 yr [95 percent CI: (6.48, 7.80) yr] and 7.43 yr [95 percent CI: (5.68, 9.59) yr], respectively. The differences between average ages could be explained by factors such as differences in the effectiveness of the protection conferred to newborns by maternally derived antibodies, competition between virus species and age-dependent host susceptibility. Our seroprevalence data may illustrate a case of the above-mentioned mechanisms working together within the same population.

The many faces of epidemiology: evolutionary epidemiology / As muitas faces da epidemiologia: epidemiologia evolucionária

We review important issues revealed by the application of the evolutionary theory to epidemiological problems. The scope is restricted to infectious diseases and the evolution of virulence as a consequence of public health strategies to control transmission. We focus on the discussion about the possibility of virulence management and explore current scenarios in which recent advances in molecular biology and genetics offer new tools to monitor and change diversity among pathogens, vertebrate and invertebrate hosts. We stress the need to integrate the analytical framework of epidemiology into population genetics and evolutionary theory. We anticipate as an outcome of this process the development of study designs and analytical tools to predict the evolutionary implications of control measures in the population and surveillance mechanisms to continuously monitor the changes in pathogen virulence patterns. Communication among modelers, epidemiologists and molecular biologists is essential in order to design model-driven field trials and to develop data-driven analytical tools leading to conclusive findings that can inform the public health oriented decision making process.

Apresentamos os principais conceitos relacionados à aplicação da teoria evolutiva a problemas epidemiológicos. Limitamo-nos às doenças infecciosas e à evolução da virulência como conseqüência das estratégias de controle da transmissão em saúde pública. Nosso foco é voltado à discussão sobre a possibilidade de controle da virulência e exploramos possíveis cenários atuais em que os avanços recentes em biologia molecular e genética oferecem novas ferramentas de controle e monitoramento de variações na diversidade em patógenos e hospedeiros. Chamamos a atenção para a necessidade de integrar a estrutura analítica da epidemiologia com a genética de populações e a teoria evolutiva. Seguindo a tradição epidemiológica, antecipamos como resultado deste processo o desenvolvimento de desenhos de estudos e ferramentas analíticas de predição das implicações evolutivas das medidas de controle usadas em populações e mecanismos de vigilância que permitam o monitoramento contínuo de mudanças nos padrões de virulência de patógenos. A comunicação entre modeladores, epidemiologistas e biologistas moleculares torna-se essencial ao desenho de ensaios de campo motivados por dados empíricos e ao desenvolvimento de ferramentas analíticas que possam informar o processo de decisão orientado aos problemas em saúde pública.

HIV infection and related risk behaviors in a community of recyclable waste collectors of Santos, Brazil / Infecção por HIV e comportamentos de risco relacionados em coletores de lixo de Santos, Brasil / Infección por HIV y comportamiento de riesgo relacionados con colectores de basura de Santos, Brasil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the seroprevalence of HIV, hepatitis B and C and syphilis and to describe risk behaviors associated to their transmission among recyclable waste collectors. METHODS: A seroepidemiological survey was carried out in the city of Santos, Southeastern Brazil, in 2005. A total of 315 individuals were enrolled in the survey, of which 253 subjects underwent serological testing HIV, hepatitis B and C and syphilis. Statistical analysis consisted of univariate and bivariate analyses (cross-tabulation and odds ratio) and multivariate analysis (by logistic regression), relating HIV infection with established risk behaviors and seropositivity. RESULTS: Overall seroprevalences were: HIV, 8.9 percent; hepatitis B, 34.4 percent; hepatitis C, 12.4 percent; and syphilis, 18.4 percent. Subjects were characterized by a predominance of males with low educational and economic levels, subjected to parenteral and sexual exposures to HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Multivariate analysis results indicated that risk factors for both sexually and parenterally related exposure were significantly associated with HIV in this community. CONCLUSIONS: Seroprevalences found in the study were approximately 10 to 12 times higher than the national average. These communities are socially marginalized and generally not recognized by national programs as potentially endangered populations.

OBJETIVO: Estimar a soroprevalência de HIV, Hepatites B e C e sífilis e descrever os comportamentos de risco associados à sua transmissão entre coletores autônomos de lixo. MÉTODOS: Um inquérito soroepidemiológico foi conduzido na cidade de Santos (SP), em 2005. Um total de 315 indivíduos foi incluído no estudo, dos quais 253 submeteram-se a testes sorológicos para HIV, Hepatites B e C e sífilis. A análise estatística consistiu de análises uni e bivariadas (tabulação cruzada e odds ratio) e análise multivariada (por regressão logística), relacionando a infecção por HIV com os fatores de risco estabelecidos e soropositividade. RESULTADOS: As soroprevalências totais foram: HIV, 8,9 por cento; Hepatite B, 34,4 por cento; Hepatite C, 12,4 por cento; e sífilis, 18,4 por cento. A amostra foi caracterizada por predominância de indivíduos do sexo masculino, com baixos níveis econômicos e educacionais e sujeitos a exposição parenteral e sexual ao HIV e outras doenças sexualmente transmissíveis. Os resultados da análise multivariada indicaram que fatores de risco ligados tanto à exposição sexual quanto à parenteral estão significativamente associados ao HIV nesta comunidade. CONCLUSÕES: As soroprevalências encontradas no estudo foram aproximadamente 10 a 12 vezes maiores que a média nacional. Estas comunidades são socialmente marginalizadas e geralmente não reconhecidas pelos programas nacionais como populações de risco potencial.

OBJETIVO: Estimar la seroprevalencia de HIV, Hepatitis B y C y sífilis y describir los comportamientos de riesgo asociados a la transmisión entre colectores autónomos de basura. MÉTODOS: Se realizó una investigación seroepidemiológica en la ciudad de Santos (Sudeste de Brasil), en 2005. Se realizaron análisis serológicas para HIV, Hepatitis B y C y sífilis a 253 individuos, de un total de 315 incluidos en el estudio. Los análisis estadísticos consistieron de pruebas uni y bivariadas (tabulación cruzada y odds ratio) y análisis multivariada (por regresión logística), relacionando la infección por HIV con los factores de riesgo establecidos y la seropositividad. RESULTADOS: Las seroprevalencias totales fueron: HIV, 8,9 por ciento; Hepatitis B, 34,4 por ciento; Hepatitis C, 12,4 por ciento; y sífilis, 18,4 por ciento. La muestra estuvo caracterizada por la predominancia de individuos del sexo masculino, con bajos niveles económicos y educacionales y sujetos a exposición parenteral y sexual al HIV y otras enfermedades transmisibles sexualmente. Los resultados del análisis multivariado indicaron que factores de riesgo unidos tanto a la exposición sexual como a la parenteral están significativamente asociados al HIV en esta comunidad. CONCLUSIONES: Las seroprevalencias encontradas en el estudio fueron aproximadamente 10 a 12 veces mayores que el promedio nacional. Estas comunidades son socialmente marginalizadas y generalmente no reconocidas por los programas nacionales como poblaciones de riesgo potencial.

Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil

We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (¼) and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that ¼ and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.

Factors affecting compliance with the measles vaccination schedule in a Brazilian city / Fatores que afetam a adesão ao calendário de vacinação contra o sarampo numa cidade brasileira

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: The success of vaccination campaigns depends on the degree of adherence to immunization initiatives and schedules. Risk factors associated with children's failure to receive the measles vaccine at the correct age were studied in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. DESIGN AND SETTING: Case-control and exploratory study, in the metropolitan area of São Paulo. METHODS: The caregivers of 122 children were interviewed regarding their perceptions and understanding about the measles vaccination and the disease. RESULTS: The results showed that age, region of residence, marital status and education level were unrelated to taking measles vaccines adequately. Most individuals remembered being informed about the last annual vaccination campaign by television, but no communication channel was significantly associated with vaccination status. The answers to questions about knowledge of the disease or the vaccine, when analyzed alone, were not associated with taking measles vaccinations at the time indicated by health agencies. The results showed that, when parents felt sorry for their children who were going to receive shots, they delayed the vaccination. Most of the children did not take the measles vaccination on the exactly recommended date, but delayed or anticipated the shots. CONCLUSION: It is clear that there is no compliance with the government's recommended measles vaccination schedule (i.e. first dose at nine and second at 15 months of age, as recommended in 1999 and 2000). Feeling sorry for the children receiving shots can delay vaccination taking.

CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: O sucesso das campanhas de vacinação depende da adesão às iniciativas e ao calendário de imunização. Fatores de risco associados com não tomar a vacina contra o sarampo na idade recomendada foram estudados na cidade de São Paulo. TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Estudo caso-controle e exploratório, realizado na área metropolitana de São Paulo. MÉTODO: Cuidadores de 122 crianças foram entrevistados sobre sua percepção e compreensão sobre a vacina contra o sarampo e sobre a doença. RESULTADOS: Os resultados mostraram que idade, região de residência, status marital ou nível educacional não se relacionaram com a tomada adequada das vacinas contra o sarampo. A maioria dos indivíduos lembrou-se de ter sido informada sobre a última campanha nacional de vacinação na televisão, mas nenhum canal de comunicação se associou significativamente com o status vacinal. As respostas às questões sobre conhecimentos a respeito da doença e da vacina, quando analisadas em separado, não se associaram à tomada das vacinas nas datas indicadas pelas instituições de saúde. Os resultados mostraram que quando os pais sentiam dó ao verem os filhos tomando as injeções, eles atrasavam a vacinação por pelo menos 20 dias. A maioria das crianças não toma a vacina contra o sarampo exatamente no dia recomendado, mas atrasa ou antecipa as injeções. CONCLUSÃO: Esta claro que não há aderência ao calendário governamental recomendado de vacinação contra o sarampo (i.e. primeira dose aos 9 e segunda dose aos 15 meses de idade, como recomendado em 1999 e 2000). Sentir pena de ver a criança recebendo uma injeção pode atrasar a tomada da vacina.

Estudo de comportamento associado à infecção pelo HIV e HCV em detentas de um presídio de São Paulo, Brasil / Behavior associated with HIV and HCV infection in female prison inmates in São Paulo, Brazil

Observa-se aumento do número de casos de AIDS e hepatite C entre mulheres, incluindo aquelas confinadas no sistema prisional. Este trabalho propôs estudar aspectos relacionados ao comportamento sexual e associados ao risco de transmissão do HIV e da hepatite C em detentas numa penitenciária de São Paulo, Brasil. É um estudo transversal realizado em 2000, aplicando questionários de comportamento e obtendo diagnósticos sorológicos para HIV e HCV. A medida de associação escolhida foi OR para análises bi e multivariada (regressão logística). Participaram do estudo 290 detentas. A prevalência observada para HIV e HCV foi de 13,9 por cento e 16,2 por cento, respectivamente. Associações estatisticamente significantes (p < 0,05) para HIV positivo foram observadas para as variáveis: parceiros com AIDS OR = 6,9 (2,7-35,2); usuários de drogas ingetáveis (UDI) OR = 3,3 (1,6-14,7); parceiro fixo OR=3,7 (1,5-8,3) e para HCV positivo com UDI OR = 13,7 (4,4-42,7); parceiro UDI OR = 4,9 (1,9-12,2); prisão anterior OR = 2,8 (1,2-6,5) ajustadas por: parceiros com AIDS, UDI, parceiro UDI, uso de drogas e prisão anterior. Concluiu-se que o risco parenteral foi associado com infecções pelo HIV e HCV, e o sexual, pelo HIV. Recomendam-se programas de prevenção adequados e continuados no ambiente carcerário.

An increase has been observed in AIDS and hepatitis C cases in women, including female prison inmates. This study focused on inmates' behavioral factors associated with risk of HIV and HCV transmission in a women's detention facility in São Paulo, Brazil. Behavioral questionnaires were applied and HIV and HCV serology were performed. The selected measure of association was odds ratio for both the bi and multivariate logistic regression analyses. 290 inmates participated in the study. HIV and HCV prevalence rates were 13.9 percent and 16.2 percent, respectively. Statistically significant associations were observed (p < 0.05) between HIV and the following variables: partner with AIDS OR = 6.9 (2.7-35.2); injection drug users (IDU) OR = 3.3 (1.6-14.7); regular partner OR = 3.7 (1.5-8.3), and between HCV and: IDU OR = 13.7 (4.4-42.7); IDU partner OR = 4.9 (1.9-12.2); previous arrest OR = 2.8 (1.2-6.5) adjusted for: partner with AIDS, IDU, IDU partner, drug user, and previous arrest. In conclusion, parenteral risk was associated with HIV and HCV infection and sexual risk with HIV. Appropriate and continuous preventive programs are recommended in the prison.

Mental retadation: a MRI study of 146 Brazilian children

Estudamos, através de ressonância magnética (RM), 146 crianças com quociente de inteligência menor que 70. 50% das RM não exibiram nenhum sinal de lesão (grupo N), enquanto adelgaçamento focal da junção do corpo e esplênio do corpo caloso, assimetria ventricular, leucomalácia periventricular, gliose e cisto aracnóide foram os achados mais freqüentes no restante das crianças (grupo L). Estresse materno e alteração da pressão arterial foram os achados mais freqüentes da história do pré-natal das crianças de ambos os grupos. Antecedentes familiares de deficiência mental apareceram em 30% de ambos os grupos. História de alcoolismo foi importante no grupo N. Atraso no desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor foi encontrado em 80% das crianças de ambos os grupos. Agressividade foi o achado mais freqüente na história pós-natal destas crianças.